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More and more libraries are investigating the possibility of breaking apart or unbundling their Big Deal publisher packages. In doing so, libraries acknowledge and ready themselves for the possibility of a significant portion of journal use shifting to interlibrary loan (ILL), and attempt to estimate what this shift from subscription to the ILL mode means in terms of costs. This study investigates three years of ILL usage data for 169 journals prior to undertaking subscriptions and then COUNTER usage for these same journals over a three year subscription period. The result suggests a predictive ratio of ILL requests to COUNTER uses and COUNTER uses to ILL requests.

Publication Date

Spring 5-2016


Taylor & Francis


Big Deals, electronic journals, usage statistics, Interlibrary Loan, collection evaluation, COUNTER


Collection Development and Management | Scholarly Publishing


This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in The Serials Librarian on 17/05/2016, available online:

Predicting Use:  COUNTER usage data found to be predictive of ILL use and ILL use to be predictive of COUNTER use.